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The November Conference Board Consumer Confidence index improved to 102.0 after a significant downward revision of October’s data to 99.1, marking the lowest since July 2022. The Present Situation Index dropped to 138.2, the lowest since April 2021. Consumer expectations, remaining below the recession-indicative level of 80 for the third month in a row, signal growing concerns about an impending economic downturn. Around two-thirds of consumers anticipate a recession within the next year, and labor market indicators continue to worsen.

Gold prices are surging, recently surpassing $2,013 per ounce and reaching a six-month high. Analysts are optimistic, predicting that gold might exceed its 2020 record high of $2,074.88. Key indicators suggest a breakout around $2,050 could lead to further gains, with targets around $2,500/oz. The rally is driven by falling real rates, geopolitical uncertainties, and speculation of the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate hikes. Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is reinforced by increased purchases from central banks like China, Poland, and Singapore, underscoring its positive momentum.

Market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in early 2024 are at odds with the Fed’s own signals of possible rate hikes to fight inflation. Monetary aggregates like M1 and M2 are decreasing, but total borrowings from the Fed are increasing, indicating that money printing is mainly aiding the banking sector, not the broader economy. This suggests that inflation may not drop as quickly as some anticipate. If the Fed does cut rates, it might be due to a decline in private sector demand, rather than a positive economic sign. Such rate cuts, driven by economic downturns, are unlikely to boost the markets as some expect, pointing to ongoing inflation and economic challenges.

The Bank of Japan is grappling with a substantial financial challenge, recording a massive paper loss of ¥10.5 trillion ($70.7 billion) on its assets as of the end of September. This is the largest loss since fiscal 2004, significantly impacting the bank’s balance sheet. The loss is attributed to the rise in yields, which has reduced the value of the bank’s extensive bond holdings. This situation poses a serious concern for the bank’s financial health, despite Governor Ueda’s assurances that it won’t impede monetary policy.